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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|